Determinants of energy flexibility in residential hot water systems

With increasing proliferation levels of variable energy sources, flexible energy loads will become increasingly important to help stabilize the energy grid. Increasing electrification of heating systems means that the thermal inertia of buildings and hot water vessels can provide a ubiquitous, low cost alternative to electrical storage for providing this energy flexibility. However, it is unclear how this flexibility fluctuates with various factors such as occupant behaviour and ambient conditions in the real world. This paper quantifies the effect of different influencing factors on the energy flexibility of residential hot water systems using data from a large scale real world pilot. All the houses considered in this analysis feature identical air source heat pump hot water systems, along with 200 l storage vessels. It is shown that ambient conditions, control algorithm and occupant behaviour, all influence the available energy flexibility of the hot water system, albeit in different ways. Available capacity for energy flexibility and the corresponding recovery periods can differ by as much as two to four times for identical storage, meaning that these differences should be taken into account during operational planning with flexible loads. Additionally, it is shown that the implemented control strategy provides a meaningful avenue to alter the available energy flexibility. The paper also highlights key differences in the way these factors influence the overall energy demand when compared to available flexibility.